Midsayap is a municipality in Cotabato, the Philippines, with a population of around 151,684 people. The town has been tagged as a hot spot over the years — with insurgents, extremists, and government forces engaging in combat in the area.

For the past four decades, there have been two significant insurgencies in Mindanao, the second largest island comprising the Philippines. The first, a communist rebellion led by the New People’s Army and the Communist Party of the Philippines who, despite occasional breakdowns of ceasefire, have been in talks with the government since 2001. Second, the Moro separatist struggle in the southern Bangsamoro region. The struggle was led by the Moro National Liberation Front until entering a peace agreement with the state in 1996. After which the insurgency was continued by the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) who subsequently signed a comprehensive peace agreement in 2014, leading to the inauguration of the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region of Muslim Mindanao in 2019.

Several groups, including the Maute Group, Abu Sayyaf Group and the Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Fighters, remain outside of this peace process. The 2017 IS-inspired Marawi Siege and the Jolo bombings on 27 January 2019 highlight the risk of external drivers in local conflict. How recovery and reconciliation are handled will likely determine whether support for the Islamic State grows or if it can be limited. The success of the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region of Muslim Mindanao (BARMM) will also be critical in reducing the appeal of extremism in the Philippines.